Mirror-image statistics from Beijing and Washington reveal a permanent fracture in the world’s most critical trade relationship. China’s announcement of a record $1 trillion trade surplus belies a 29% plunge in shipments to the United States. Concurrently, new data from the National Retail Federation indicates that U.S. container imports are poised for their steepest sustained decline in years, confirming a structural collapse in the transpacific trade corridor rather than a temporary adjustment.

According to the Global Port Tracker report from the NRF and Hackett Associates, U.S. ports handled 2.07 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in October, a 7.9% decrease year-over-year. However, the most significant impact is yet to come: November imports are projected to fall by 11.6%, and December by 12.7%. These double-digit declines are expected to persist through April 2026. December’s figures would represent the slowest month since June 2023, a dramatic reversal from July’s peak of 2.39 million TEUs.

The convergence of Chinese export data and American import projections exposes a critical reality: what initially seemed like tactical maneuvering around tariffs has solidified into a permanent restructuring of trade patterns. China’s ability to maintain overall export growth while losing nearly a third of its U.S. market underscores its successful diversification to the European Union, Latin America, and Africa.

Meanwhile, America’s import decline continues despite forecasts of record holiday sales exceeding $1 trillion. This suggests that U.S. retailers have effectively shifted sourcing or built inventory cushions, reducing their dependence on Chinese supply chains. Many U.S. retailers accelerated cargo imports earlier in 2025 to preempt anticipated tariffs, ensuring well-stocked shelves for the holiday season. This strategy has created what the NRF terms a “cargo vacuum” in the subsequent months.

While this frontloading exhaustion partially explains the fourth-quarter downturn, projections extending through mid-2026 point to a deeper issue beyond inventory timing. Container rates on both U.S. coasts are declining, even amidst ongoing Red Sea disruptions that temporarily inflated freight costs earlier in 2025. This softening rate environment reflects diminished competition for transpacific capacity as trade volumes contract, leading to a surplus on what was traditionally the world’s most profitable shipping route.

The trade policy landscape remains highly volatile. While the Trump administration recently reduced tariffs on certain food products, broader tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act face a Supreme Court challenge. However, even if these tariffs are overturned, the administration is likely to seek their reinstatement through alternative trade authorities, ensuring continued uncertainty.

Full-year 2025 U.S. imports are now forecast at 25.2 million TEUs, a modest 1.4% decrease from 2024’s 25.5 million TEUs. This overall decline, however, masks the accelerating collapse occurring in the fourth quarter. The outlook for 2026 indicates continued challenges, with March imports projected to plummet by 16.8% year-over-year, marking the steepest monthly decline within the forecast period.

The outcome is a new normal: bilateral trade flows are fragmenting into distinct systems, with each side adapting to chronic instability rather than anticipating the restoration of previous patterns.

US-China trade corridor faces structural collapse as data confirms bilateral decoupling